Martin Ford on the Rise of Workforce Automation

In case we haven’t been cautioned enough about the threats of emerging artificial intelligence, a panel of academics addressed the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) on Sunday with a warning that advancements in intelligent and semi-intelligent automation could lead to overwhelming unemployment across many industries.
 
Machines’ ability to recognize patterns is yet to match our own, but their increasing sophistication in regards to tasks like speech recognition and data analysis has seen AI applied to real world applications such as autonomous driving. In this vain Bart Selman, professor of computer science at Cornell University, said, “For the first time, we’re going to see these machines and systems as part of our everyday life.”
The predicted success of self-driving cars may prove to be a blessing that greatly reduces car accidents, but – with 10% of U.S. jobs requiring some degree of vehicle operation – the technology will also undoubtedly effect the labor market. Moshe Vardi, professor of computer science and director of the Ken Kennedy Institute for Information Technology at Rice University, told AAAS, “We can expect the majority of these jobs will simply disappear.” He went on to suggest that the disconnect between the manufacturing industry and job growth is a result of automation. Though manufacturing volume is right now at its peak, U.S. manufacturing jobs are currently below the figures from the 1950s. He pointed to the 250,000 industrial robots in the U.S. and the increasing growth rate of their use.
What Vardi suggests will happen is “job polarization”, a phenomenon that emerges when high-skilled jobs demand complex human intelligence and low-skilled jobs are too expensive to automate. Thus, the middle ground jobs will be the easiest to automate, leading to greater economic inequality. Vardi also noted that although this issue is widely regarded as a threat that could make a huge impact on American economic life, there is no discussion of it in politics, particularly not in the presidential election. “We need to start thinking very seriously: What will humans do when machines can do almost everything?” he said. “We have to redefine the meaning of good life without work.”
Furthermore, Wendell Wallach, an ethicist at Yale University’s Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics and the Hastings Center, said  “There’s a need for concerted actions to keep technology a good servant and not let it become a dangerous matter.” He also proposed that 10% of AI research funding should be put towards studying the impact that AI machines will have on society, echoing Vardi’s concern that politics has failed to address the tremendous issue. “We need strong, meaningful human control,” he said.

Job automation predictions from an individual expert typically draw from years of academic research experience, or time "in the trenches" of industry. With growing interest and speculation on the job market of the next decade, we set out to garner a perspective as to what Silicon Valley thinks about the possibilities of automations in various business tasks.
We wanted to know - what work functions have the most potential for near-term automation?
In the infographics and article below, we explore the survey responses from nearly 80 Bay Area investors, founders, and tech folks - on which business functions have the greatest potential for automation today, and in the coming five years ahead.

Procurement isn't usually seen as a "sexy" aspect of a business's operations. Procurement personnel are responsible for sourcing suppliers or vendors, determining criterion of success, negotiating deal terms, and tracking results and deliverables - all of which could be considered "under appreciated" work. This week, Tamr's Eliot Knudsen walks us through the ways that AI is making it's way into the procurement process, and what it means for the future of this job function.

Episode Summary: In some ways, investors in AI have to do a lot of what we do at Emerj, which is sort through marketing fluff and determine what's actually working and what's more of a pipe dream, as well as what's coming up in the next five years that seems inevitable and what's more likely to flop. In this episode we're joined by Li Jiang, a venture capitalist with GSV Capital whom I was connected with through BootstrapLabs. This week, Jiang speaks about the current areas of AI that he sees driving business process automations, as well as what technologies he believes will make a long-term impact in terms of automation. His insights on where AI automations are generating cost savings and increased efficiency, as well as what roles might be completely replaced or significantly augmented by AI, are useful nuggets for companies who are thinking through some of their own business processes and are eager to identify low-hanging fruit.

In this episode of AI in Industry, we speak with Brendan Kohler, the CTO of Co-founder of Boston-based startup Sentenai. Brendan speaks about how businesses today can effectively leverage the data being collected by their existing IoT and automation systems. Though example applications and use-cases, Brendan elaborates on what kinds businesses might use this technology today and what they can expect in the near future.